What is the success rate of the draft’s overall No.1?An intensive analysis of one pick for 10 years.

The U.S. Major League Baseball 메이저도메인 (MLB) draft began today (10th) our time.

The Pittsburgh Pirates, which had the right to nominate the No. 1 overall, nominated the top pitcher Paul Skins (21), who was considered the biggest draft pitcher.

The second-placed Washington Nationals picked Dylan Kruse, 21, who was considered the best hitter in the draft.

Fans are bound to be happy with the club’s nomination. Not only KBO fans, but also MLB fans. Right after the draft, the debate about “Why didn’t you pick that player, and why did you pick this player” takes place in most teams.

So what is the success rate of all 1 pick players who are safe to say that they are the best players of the year? Since there was a tool that was rated the best on the amateur stage, did most of them become star players as expected at the time of the draft?

So we looked at the current status of the players who have been selected as the No. 1 overall player over the past 10 years. The more recently selected players are likely to be fostered in the minor leagues, so let’s go in reverse order.

■ Houston, who took one pick and two for tanking…Surprisingly, the results were not successful

The Houston Astros, who were practically the first intentional tanking in MLB, won the first overall draft pick in 2013 and 2014.

Houston named right-hander Mark Appell from Houston in 2013. However, Appell did not grow to be the team’s core, and was eventually traded to the Philadelphia Phillies in December 2015.

Appell’s turnaround was not in Philadelphia either, and he will retire in 2018 as he groans due to injury.

However, he returned in 2021, and he will make a dramatic major league debut in 2022. Last year’s performance was ERA (Average ERA) 1.74 in 6 games and 10.1 innings. I wondered if I would be the hero of the human victory, but I was very sluggish in this year’s exhibition game, and Philadelphia released Appel. It’s a very disappointing result for the overall record of one pick.

Houston used the top pick in 2014 for left – handed pitcher brady aiken. However, Houston and Aikin disagreed during the contract and failed to sign.

Aiken joined Cleveland the following year with a total of 17 times, which resulted in bad results for both the player and the team. Eiken was ranked as one of the worst players not to make his major league debut as a top overall player.

■ ‘Best 1 Pick’ with 230 billion players vs ‘1 Pick’ with still question mark

The number one overall player in 2015 is a famous player that all MLB fans know. Danby Swanson, 29, shortstop for the Chicago Cubs.

Swanson, who joined the Atlanta Braves, grew up to be the team’s main shortstop and also led Atlanta to a World Series victory in 2021. After last season, he signed a seven-year, $177 million (W230.6 billion) contract with the Chicago Cubs. It was a history that could be called an exemplary answer for the entire 1 pick.

For your information, that year when Swanson was selected as the first pick, Houston picked Alex Bregman (29), the current team’s starting third baseman, as the second overall. Bregman showed outstanding performance and agreed early on a five-year $100 million contract extension from 2020, leading the team to last year’s World Series championship.

From Houston’s point of view, he gave up Aiken and nominated Bregman as the second-highest overall nomination the following year, so it was actually a successful “total pick.”

The number one pick in 2016 is outfielder Mickey Moniac, 25. Moniac, who was nominated by Philadelphia, failed to impress in the minor leagues, and his evaluation declined over the years.

He made his big league debut in 2020, but he only had an OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage) of 0.603 in 8 games, and he also appeared in 21 games in 2021, but he was significantly sluggish with OPS 0.349. In the end, Philadelphia included Moniac in its trade chip to acquire Los Angeles Angels pitcher Noah Syndergaard in August 2022.

Moniac, whose big league career seemed to end like this, turned around in the Angels. In 38 games, he has a batting average of 0.308, 10 home runs, and an OPS of 0.984. He’s only 25 years old, so it’s enough to look forward to him.

The Minnesota Twins, who had one pick in 2017, choose Yusu Royce Lewis (24). And Louis grew up as expected. Although he graduated from the minor leagues step by step, he hurt his knee badly during spring training in 2021 and had to delay his big league debut.

He made his big league debut last year and preheated with 12-game OPS 0.867, and he is continuing his good performance with 26-game OPS 0.828 this season. However, as Lewis continues to suffer large and small injuries, it remains to be seen whether he will maintain his physical condition to play a season.

■ The success or failure of team rebuilding

Of course, the growth of the overall 1 pick has a significant impact on the team’s rebuilding. Having the right to nominate the first place overall means that it has ruined the present.

This prospect must grow into the core of the team, as it is one pick earned at the expense of his current performance. In that respect, the Detroit Tigers are sorry.

Detroit, which had the top overall nomination rights in 2018 and 2020, names right-hander Casey Mize (26) and first baseman Spencer Tokelson (23), respectively.

Mize, who appeared in the big leagues in 2020, made 30 starts in 2021, emerging as a hope for the Tigers’ starters with 150.1 innings of ERA 3.71, 118 strikeouts, and 7-9.

However, he had Tommy John surgery last year for causing elbow problems with only two games, and he is still rehabilitating.

Still, Tokelson is falling short of expectations compared to Mize, who performed well in the year. Although he made his debut last year, he showed disappointing hits with a batting average of 0.203, eight home runs, and an OPS of 0.604 in 110 games.

He appeared in 87 games this year, batting average of 0.228, 12 home runs, and OPS of 0.711 are better than last year, but he is still not up to expectations. Tokelson is a first baseman whose batting ability is important, so if there is no turnaround, he may not have a steady opportunity from next year.

The problem is that Detroit’s current performance is also at the bottom of the list, with all one-pick players selected in two years in a row showing little performance. Detroit has not been in the postseason since 2014.

On the other hand, catcher Adley Rutchman (25), the first pick overall for the Baltimore Orioles in 2019, is building a smooth big league career.

He made his debut last year and ranked second in the American League (AL) Rookie of the Year (OPS 0.807), and Baltimore struggled with 16 wins and 24 losses before the rushman call-up, but after the call-up, he recorded 67 wins and 55 losses, competing for wild cards until the end of the season.

This year, he is running second in the AL East with 54 wins and 35 losses (0.607) and first in the wild card. As Rushman became the main catcher, he found stability in both offense and defense and is considered to lead to good performance. Although he is a catcher, he has 12 home runs and 0.799 OPS this year, and was also selected as the AL All-Star of the Year.

■ From 1 pick to 1 promising TOP 1…The first pick that I look forward to more

Gunner Henry Davis (23), Pittsburgh’s overall pick in 2021, and Baltimore’s one-pick shortstop Jackson Holiday (19) last year, need to be watched a little longer. Because I’m still young.

Davis, who quickly graduated from each minor league after joining the team, made his big league debut on the 19th of last month. So far, he has a batting average of 0.239 and an OPS of 0.657 in 20 games.

Due to Pittsburgh’s situation, he is currently playing more as a right fielder than a catcher, and the key seems to be what he will look like if he wears a catcher mask in earnest.

Holiday is growing very fast to match the overall number one. Even though he is 19, he is up to the top single A, and he has a batting average of 0.314, 5 home runs, and an OPS of 0.940 in 57 games.

He has risen to the top of the MLB pipeline promising rankings recently announced due to his good minor league performance for his age. Last year, the player who received the 1 pick overall nomination beat all of his seniors in a year and became the top prospect in the league.

Although the ranking of promising players does not guarantee success in the big leagues, it is analyzed that Holiday’s chances of success are still much higher than that of failure, as many prospects are sluggish even in the minor leagues.

All top nominees over the past decade, which shows that nomination rankings are not everything, it seems clear that this uncertainty that no one can be sure of success is what makes baseball more fun.

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